December round-up...

Even in Bishkek internet access has been a bit of a hassle for the last few weeks ,with pages taking minutes to load... or not. Added to which my attention has been focused on Kyrgyzstan, and I've been continuing to post news roundups over at the New Eurasia Kyrgyzstan Blog in the absence of any other regular bloggers. I am hoping this situation will improve at some point, not least because I'd like to have at least some Kyrgyzstan posts on this blog, seeing as it was one of the main reasons I started it. Still, we shall see.

Anyhow, seeing as there's almost a month's worth of stories to catch up on, best get on with it:

Regional

• Peacejournalism.com has a short piece taking the usual view of Central Asia as an energy supplier (that three letter word beginning in o and ending in l that tends to be equated with $ for many...) and the possibility of energy wars and terrorism. And it's exactly this sort of take on things that will help lead to conflicts as the interests of the developed world and international economics are put before everything else, and the potentially increasingly embittered "losers" in all of this are the populations of the region's republics. And then everyone looks surprised when there are conflicts or extremist movements of various creeds seem to be gaining support and calls for more "democracy"... Look a bit deeper at the cause and try and address that, rather than proposing wholly inadequate symptomatic remedies.
• Global Research.ca takes up the energy theme, this time looking at it from the US point of view in light of China's entry into the region's energy market with the opening of the new joint Sino-Kazakh funded oil pipline running into north west China and the implications for America:

That means closer China-Kazakh-Russia energy cooperation--the nightmare scenario of Washington geopolitical strategists such as Zbigniew Brzezinski or Henry
Kissinger.

Simply put, Washington stands to lose major leverage over the entire strategic Eurasian region with the latest developments. The Kazakh developments also likely has more than a little to do with the fact that the Washington war drums are suddenly beating more loudly against Iran.

• Geopolitics is also the watchword over at Eurasianet, which an article arguing that Kyrgyzstan is the new focus of the Central Asian "contest" for influence (aka slightly more evocatively called the New Great Game...) based on signs that Russia and new best friend Uzbekistan want to try and "roll back" Kyrgyzstan's colour revolution. I'll resist the urge to ask why the hell we're still calling it a revolution, not least because it's all a bit of a moot point - the more important thing is what's currently happening and the future prognosis. More over at the New Eurasia Kyrgyzstan Blog, obviously.
• Moving on to a "new" security issue (as opposed to the more realist terms of those seeing the region in Great Game terms), Eurasia Daily Monitor reports on the Russian offer to help tackle the problem of narcotics in Central Asia and the wider political implications, concluding that the offer is part of a Russian strategy to ensure the CARs, especially Kyrgyzstan and Tajikistan, understand just how vital the Russian presence is in the region.
• UPI has a report on the new UNDP report on Central Asia and it's conclusions, which make for interesting, and sometimes provocative, reading. My one concern is that organisations like the UN, which traditionally mainly work in partnership with governments, may be underestimating the importance of governmental reform as the basis on which to implement future economic, social, and regional reforms. On the other hand, as Eurasianet notes, the report does in many ways focus on the question of "what if?", and concludes that there are 3 possible future scenarios: "more political repression, some economic liberalization combined with continued strict political control, or gradual political and economic liberalization."
• The BBC takes a look at Central Asia's Islamic Militancy, to quote the title of the piece, from Andijon and in the wider region in terms of the IMU and Hizb-ut-Tahrir, which is now banned throughout the region. As noted at the end of the article, there is often a sense that government repression/restriction of religious groups may be a violation of human rights and in fact have the opposite effect, further radicalising people as they feel compelled to defend their faith and beliefs.
• The end of the year inevitably provokes a plethora of reviews and the like of the year's events. RFE/RL has a reasonably restrained look at some of the major events of 2005 in Central Asia.
• The CIS is suffering yet another bout of Hamlet syndrome with new comments from Russian politician Mikhail Margelov calling the organisation "history", describing it as "amorphous" and having outlived its potential, reports RIA Novosti. PanArmenian takes up the matter as well, asking if the CIS has ceased to exist. Whilst I'm inclined to suspect that rumours of the CIS' demise are still a little premature, if PINR's report on Russia's idea for a new security system in the guise of the CSTO to replace the CIS is anything to go by, it may be looking more likely.
• Whilst the CIS is still in existence, however, debate continues about the whos, hows and wherefores of cooperation with other organisations. NATO is the latest body to attract attention, with Russian Deputy Foreign Minister Grigory Karasin noting that the CIS needs constructive cooperation in the military-political sphere with western countries, including NATO member states.
• Finally, the American presence in Central Asia comes under the spotlight once more with an RFE/RL article asking what the US strategy for bases in the former Soviet bloc is. Worth a read.

Kazakhstan

• Kazakhstan can do little wrong, it appear at the moment, even after shortcomings of the presidential elections at the beginning of the month (to be honest, most of the issues concerned the pre-election period, rather than the elections per se), with many touted the republic as the region's new Great Hope. Very much in this vein is Vladimir Socor's article on Moldova.org, entitled "A Model for Central Asia".
• Overall, the fallout from the elections, which Nazarbaev won with what might be politely described as a landslide, has been very moderate. The CIS observer mission's appraisal was inevitably very upbeat, with CIS Executive Secretary Vladimir Rushailo commenting that Kazakhstan "has passed a grand political exam" reports KazInform, whilst NewsfromRussia has a piece on US calls for charges of election fraud to be investigated, and the Scotsman notes that some monitors were less than happy with the standards of the elections. The Christian Science Monitor also weighs in with an article examining America's "soft power" in the republic that may at least partially explain current upbeat atitudes towards Kazakhstan. Meanwhile, Central Asia - Caucasus Analyst poses the $64,000 question with an article entitled "Could Kazakhstan Move Beyond Electoral Authoritarianism?" - I spot that a new adjective syndrome is affecting use of the word "authoritarianism"...
• Mondoshoes has an interesting look at the reasons for Nazarbaev's 91% victory, arguing that it's a question of economics more than anything.
• KazInform reports that Kazakhstan's entry into the WTO has been discussed at a round table meeting with a view to working out what the republic's negotiating terms are.
• Meanwhile Kazakhstan's candidacy for the OSCE Chairmanship in 2009 has apparently gained the support of the EU.
• December 16 was Independence Day in Kazakhstan, as KazInform notes.
• The web site Monday Morning takes a quick look at the question of ethnicity in Kazakhstan, concluding with the slightly startling remark from one analyst that "“We need very strict immigration rules. ... We have to guard carefully, because otherwise, before you know it, we’d all be just Chinese”.

Tajikistan

• Russian-Uzbek relations seem to be causing some concern in Tajikistan, where there are fears that promised Russian investment in Tajikistan in the form of RusAl (Russian Aluminium) may suffer as a result of improved Russian-Uzbek relations. As RFE/RL notes, problems with infrastructure, levels of technology and pollution may all hinder Tajik-Russian cooperation, despite reassurances from RusAl's Chairman, Oleg Deripaska, to the contrary.
• Relief Web has a report entitled "Water in Tajikistan: a curse and a blessing" examining problems of erosion and agricultural needs for water.
• RFE/RL has a brief interview with George Soros on Tajikistan's millenium goals, noting that more devopment of civil society, as well as society in general, is required.
• AlertNet reports that more than 17 people were killed by mines in 2005, despite ongoing demining efforts in the republic, which have now drawn to a close for the year as winter draws in.
• IRIN reports that there was a sharp rise in arrests for human trafficking offences in Tajikistan this year, with more than 230 crimes being registered compared to around 150 in 2004.
• More positively, Relief Web has a short article on the changes that women in the republic are facilitating, not least through micro-credits and setting up NGOs.

Turkmenistan

• NewsCentralAsia reports that a new law on migration has been passed, which is designed to regulate all aspects of migration in the republic and which requires the creation of a national database for the population of Turkmenistan that would also be used for taxation, insurance and integration and analysis of information about the population of the country, and which will require the issuance of new identity cards.
• Turkmenistan.ru reports that Vladimir Putin called President Niyazov on December 12 to congratulate him on the occasion of the 10th anniversary of Turkmenistan's official neutrality. RIA Novosti also notes that on December 21 the republic celebrated 20 years of Turkmenbashi's rule. Congratulations...
• Neutrality does not prevent economic cooperation however, as news of China's offer of a considerable aid package to the republic shows (NewsCentralAsia). One word for the motivation behind the offer: oil...
• One of the slightly more odd (and this is a very relative term where Turkmenbashi is concerned) stories recently has been the plan to build a zoo in the middle of the desert and stock it with a wide range of animals... including penguins. Oh yes, despite the somewhat warm climate, Turkmenbashi has decreed that penguins must be included in the zoo due to his belief that penguins must be saved from extinction which will be caused by them starving to death as a result of global warming. Different planet...
• NewsCentralAsia reports that the UNHCR has celebrated 10 years of working in the republic. Much kudos to their staff for managing to keep functioning in a country with a truly crackpot regime.

Uzbekistan

• Economic migrants have made it onto the news radar, with a RFE/RL report on the harsh conditions endured by illegal Uzbek migrants in neighbouring republics in search of a better (but still pretty miserly) wage.
• Meanwhile IRIN reports on the continuance of forced labour in Uzbekistan's cotton industry, which apparently uses government employees and schoolchildren to provide sufficient manpower (or more accurately maybe, womenpower).
• On a lighter note is news that Uzbekistan's Jews will soon be able to enjoy locally-produced kosher jam thanks to a new Uzbek-Israeli company called Spartak.
• Gazeta.kz has an interesting article entitled "Uzbekistan as a subject of geopolitical games" that argues Karimov's recent reorientation towards Russia can be counted as a tactical victory, at least in the short term.

Reports, newswraps, publications, etc.

• KazInform reports on the publication of a new book by Kazakh scholar Marat Shaikhutdinov, a collection of articles somewhat Prussianly entitled Geopolitics, globalistics and national security theory: methodological and applied aspects.
• The latest issue of Central Asia - Causasus Analyst (Nov 30, 2005) is available for download in pdf format here.
• RFE/RL Central Asia Reports Vol. 5, No. 46 (December 8), Vol. 5, No. 47 (December 16), Vol. 5, No. 48 (December 22) are available. The full 2005 archive is here.
• AlertNet's Weekly Central Asia Newswrap from December 9 is here, and December 16 here.
• IWPR's Reporting Central Asia No. 425, No. 426, No. 427 (December 17), No. 428 (December 23) are available (technically speaking, but the IWPR site appears to be down at the moment, hence no links to individual reports).
• Central Asia and the Caucasus, 6 (36) will be published shortly. More details here.

4 hours and 2 Explorer crashes later, over and out from Bishkek for the time being. I'll be posting a Kyrgyzstan round up over at New Eurasia in the next couple of days.